Counterfactual impact analysis

Know what actually moved your metrics

You launched a campaign, changed a price, rolled out a policy. Your KPI moved — but would it have moved anyway? We quantify the true effect of your intervention by comparing what happened with what would have happened without it.

Observed Expected without intervention

What we do

Marketing & campaign lift

Measure the real incremental effect of a campaign, promotion, or rebrand on sales, sign-ups, or traffic — beyond before/after gut feel.

Pricing & product changes

Quantify how a price change, feature launch, or redesign truly affected your KPI, separated from seasonality and trend.

Policy & operations

Evaluate the impact of a new policy, regulation, or operational change on the metric you care about, with statistical confidence.

How we work together

01

Reach out

Tell us about your intervention and the KPI you want to understand through the contact form.

02

Discovery meeting

We meet to understand your context, the intervention, and the data you have.

03

Data review

We discuss your time series, the KPI to measure, and the control variables that explain its usual behavior.

04

Model & results

We build the counterfactual model and deliver a clear report: the estimated effect, its uncertainty, and what it means for you.

Ready to know the real effect?

Send us a message and we'll set up a meeting to look at your data together.

Book a discovery call